Trump thaw may mean Russia drifts from Iran
Canadian Iranian journalist and documentary filmmaker
The fast improving relationship between the United States under President Donald Trump and Russia may mean Moscow will seek more distance from Washington's Mideast nemesis Iran, Russian-born journalist and filmmaker Tanya Lukyanova said.
"It appears that Russia is no longer as interested in Iranian military assistance as the situation on the front lines in Ukraine is changing and as the geopolitical situation is also changing with the ceasefire proposed by the US and Ukraine," Lukyanova told the Eye for Iran podcast.
Trump rapidly called for a ceasefire and peace deal to resolve the war between Ukraine and Russia since taking office in January.
His administration has mooted ceding Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine and rules out Kyiv's accession to US-led military alliance NATO, delighting Moscow.
Ukraine and the United States this week agreed to a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire - an initiative praised but not yet accepted by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"The ceasefire negotiations hinge on Russia accepting that deal, but everything points towards - with Donald Trump coming to the White House - that this is the closest the US has ever come to having Russia as an ally," Lukyanova added.
Putin last week agreed to mediate nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran, according to Russian state media, scrambling an equation in which Iran and Russia had grown closer for years.
"Iran ties really improved rapidly since the beginning of the full scale invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, when Iran became a major partner for Russia that had suddenly found itself isolated from the West," Lukyanova said.
"It found itself needing not only Iranian equipment and war technology, like its drones, weapons and missiles but also Iran became a key strategic player for Russia for evading sanctions."
Russia suggested to the United States last week that the two powers should hold talks focused on Iran's nuclear program, the Kremlin confirmed on Wednesday, in yet another sign of converging outlooks on global affairs by Washington and Moscow.
Iran's hollowed out standing in the Middle East may also provide an incentive for Moscow to recalibrate ties, Lukyanova added.
The battering Iran and its armed allies took in the region at the hands of Israel, especially with the loss of Tehran's oldest Arab ally the Assad dynasty to Islamist rebels, has diminished Iran's sway.
Soviet then Russian forces have been based along Syria's Mediterranean coast for decades - an arrangement now imperiled by the turmoil in the country.
"With that, Iran becomes less of an interesting partnership for Russia, which also is also trying to hold onto its standing in the Middle East, as we see now with their attempts to negotiate for the remain of their two military bases in Syria."