The expected one: Shi'ite messiah animates and divides Islamic Republic
British Iranian journalist and political analyst
Reverence for the Shi'ite messiah, or Mahdi, has played a central yet contested role in Iran’s Islamic theocracy—bolstering the legitimacy of its two leaders while also fueling subtle power plays by hardline zealots.
Iran’s system of clerical rule broadly considers the Supreme Leader to be the representative of the Mahdi, the twelfth Imam in Shi'ite Islam, who is destined to return and rule over a period of divinely-inspired justice just ahead of the end times.
The Islamic governance theory developed and institutionalized by the founder of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, is based on the belief that a paramount Islamic scholar (Vali-ye Faqih) should lead the country with ultimate authority over state and religious affairs.
A major early critic of this view was the Hojjatiyeh Society, originally a Mahdist faction animated by contempt for the Baha'i religious minority in the run-up to the 1979 Revolution.
Khomeini later banned the group for opposing political involvement and theocratic rule. Although officially dissolved in 1983, its influence persists within certain conservative religious circles, where some followers argue that only the Mahdi himself can usher in true Islamic rule and a period of chaos will precede his return.
What is Mahdism and who is Mahdi?
Mahdism is the belief in the second coming of Imam Mahdi, a messianic figure in Islamic eschatology, especially in Twelver Shi'ite Islam.
Born in 868 CE, Mahdi is believed to have gone into occultation at the age of six after his father, the Eleventh Imam, was allegedly poisoned on the orders of the Sunni Abbasid ruler.
According to Twelver Shi'ite doctrine that is Iran's official religion, he communicated with his followers through four deputies until 941 CE, after which no direct contact has occurred. He is expected to reappear at the end of times to establish justice, defeat tyranny, and bring global peace under Islamic rule.
In contrast, most Sunni sects believe the Mahdi is a righteous leader from the Prophet Muhammad’s family who will appear before the Day of Judgment to restore justice and uphold Islam. Unlike Shi'ite beliefs, Sunnis do not consider him infallible or divinely appointed.
The Politicization of Mahdism
While various factions within the Islamic Republic acknowledge Mahdism, some have politicized and institutionalized it, elevating it to a cult-like ideology.
The now ostracized ‘Ahmadinejad Circle’, ultra-hardline Paydari (Steadfastness) Party, and its ally, Jebhe-ye Sobh-e Iran (MASAF), are the most influential among the political groups that promote Mahdism as a political ideology.
Former Tehran mayor and perhaps Iran's most strident critic of the West as president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made frequent references to the Mahdi while in office. Out of favor with Khamenei, he now never appears alongside him.
These factions wield significant influence within the Revolutionary Guards and its Basij militia, state-funded Shi'ite seminaries, and numerous governmental institutions.
The groups emerged from the circle of the followers of the late Ayatollah Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, a radical cleric who strongly emphasized Mahdism and theocratic rule.
Mesbah-Yazdi initially supported Ahmadinejad but later withdrew his backing due to conflicts with Supreme Leader Khamenei. This led to a split, with Ahmadinejad’s supporters forming their distinct brand of Mahdism.
Many consider ultra-hardliner Ayatollah Mohammad-Mehdi Mirbagheri, who endorsed ultra-hardliner Saeed Jalili in last year’s snap elections, as Mesbah-Yazdi’s successor. Mirbagheri teaches that fighting and overcoming infidels is a prerequisite for the return of the hidden Imam.
Ahmadinejad’s Mahdist agenda
During his 2005–2013 presidency, Ahmadinejad and his allies strongly promoted Mahdism, often hinting at having a direct connection with the Mahdi.
His administration allocated substantial funds for Mahdist propaganda and policies aimed at hastening Mahdi’s return.
Ahmadinejad’s government also significantly expanded the Jamkaran Mosque, a small historical site near Qom associated with Mahdist traditions.
Since the late 1990s, Jamkaran has evolved into a grand complex and a major pilgrimage destination, symbolizing the Islamic Republic’s ideological commitment to Mahdism.
Some religious scholars have debated the historical legitimacy of Jamkaran's connection to Mahdi, but Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has visited Jamkaran Mosque multiple times, effectively giving it his official blessing.
Hardline-dominated clerical institutions and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) actively encourage visits to Jamkaran.
In September 2024, Iran’s armed forces held a joint ceremonial morning assembly at the mosque to renew their allegiance to Mahdi on the anniversary of his assumed leadership as the Twelfth Imam. The IRGC Commander-in-Chief, Hossein Salami, addressed the ceremony.
Mahdism and modern geopolitical conflicts
Political hardliners and the Ahmadinejad Circle often view modern geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East region through an eschatological lens.
In Shi'ite beliefs on the end times, certain events and conflicts in Syria and Yemen are believed to be signs preceding the emergence of Imam Mahdi from occultation.
These prophecies are derived from hadiths or sayings attributed to the Prophet Muhammad and the Imams, including the prophesies of the rise of a tyrannical and brutal leader in Damascus (Sufyani) and his invasion of Iraq and a righteous leader (Yamani) who emerges in Yemen and supports Mahdi.