Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
Iran’s foreign trade has contracted sharply since the conflict with the United States began, with non-oil exports and imports falling by around a quarter or more, according to customs data released after months of delay.
Iran exported about $15 billion worth of non-oil goods, including natural gas and LPG, through August 16, nearly five months into the Iranian calendar year that began on March 21. That was nearly 30% below the figure reported for the first five months of the previous year.
Imports fell to about $17 billion over the same near-five-month period, about a quarter below the full five-month figure reported a year earlier.
The figures show a sharp deterioration in Iran’s trade during a conflict that has disrupted key industries and shipping routes, adding to an economy already struggling under years of sanctions, declining oil revenues and chronic shortages of foreign currency.
The United States has intensified economic pressure on Tehran since the conflict began on February 28, while imposing a maritime blockade on Iran amid disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian customs authorities have not published a detailed breakdown of the decline in non-oil exports. But the latest figures indicate that non-oil exports have fallen for a second consecutive year, with the current near-five-month total roughly a third below the level recorded in the first five months of 2024.
Imports have performed even worse over the longer period, with the latest total nearly 40% below the first-five-month figure recorded in 2024.
Petrochemicals and steel hit by strikes
The deterioration comes after attacks disrupted two of Iran’s most important non-oil export industries: petrochemicals and steel.
Iran exported about $45 billion in non-oil goods during the previous Iranian fiscal year, with petrochemicals and steel accounting for roughly $17 billion, or 37% of the total.
Israeli strikes in March hit Iran’s major petrochemical hubs in Mahshahr and Asaluyeh, as well as major steel producers including Mobarakeh Steel and Khuzestan Steel.
The Iranian government subsequently halted the export of a wide range of petrochemical and steel products for two to three months. Some export permits were later restored, but the government has not disclosed how much these industries exported during the first five months of the current year.
That makes it difficult to determine precisely how much of the overall decline in non-oil exports was caused by disruptions to these sectors.
But given their importance to Iran’s export earnings, any prolonged disruption to production, transportation or overseas sales would have a significant effect on the country’s trade balance.
Oil exports fall even faster
The decline in Iran’s oil exports appears to have been even steeper.
Iranian customs authorities do not publish oil-export figures. Kpler data seen by Iran International, however, show that Iran’s average daily crude-oil and condensate sales to China during the first five months of the current Iranian year were slightly above 1 million barrels per day, about 40% below the same period last year.
Iran’s total fuel-oil exports to international markets also fell sharply, averaging about 96,000 barrels per day, down 57% year on year.
The decline has accelerated in recent months.
Iran’s oil shipments to China, its main customer, have fallen to roughly 520,000 barrels per day this month, while the average over the previous two months was about 800,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler estimates.
That compares with roughly 1.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate sold to China at the beginning of the conflict.
Iran’s fuel-oil exports have also dropped from an average of about 220,000 barrels per day at the start of the war to 61,000 barrels during August.
The collapse in fuel-oil exports has also coincided with a sharp deterioration in Iran’s trade with the United Arab Emirates.
The UAE was Iran’s largest fuel-oil customer last year, accounting for more than 70% of Iran’s fuel-oil exports. But following widespread Iranian attacks on the UAE, the trade has been almost suspended.
Malaysia, Singapore and China have also largely stopped buying Iranian fuel oil since the beginning of the conflict.
Mounting pressure on Iran’s economy
The combined decline in oil and non-oil exports is likely to put further pressure on Iran’s already strained foreign-exchange position.
At the same time, the fall in imports suggests that Iranian companies and consumers are facing increasing difficulty accessing foreign goods, raw materials, machinery and intermediate products.
The trade figures therefore point to a broader deterioration than a simple decline in exports. Iran is simultaneously losing export revenue and reducing its ability to import the goods needed to sustain domestic production.
If the decline in oil shipments persists, pressure on Tehran’s foreign-currency reserves and its ability to finance imports could intensify further in the coming months.
For an economy heavily dependent on oil revenue and imports of industrial inputs, the latest figures suggest that the economic costs of the conflict are extending well beyond the energy sector.
Around 20,400 people participated in the online poll, with 44% saying they would not invest in property in Iran even if they could afford to do so. Only around half said they would buy a home.
Of those who participated, 67% were men and 33% women.
People aged 25 to 34 made up the largest group of respondents at 36.6%, followed by those aged 35 to 44 at 30.1%. People aged 45 to 54 accounted for 12.8%, while those aged 18 to 24 made up 11.4%.
Participants also left around 2,000 comments explaining their choices, offering a broader picture of the considerations shaping their decisions.
The responses centered on attachment to Iran, hopes for political change, plans to emigrate, economic hardship and concerns over the security of their savings.
‘If I had enough money, I wouldn't be in Iran’
For many of those opposed to buying a home, having enough money would provide an opportunity to leave Iran rather than invest more heavily in the country.
“If I had enough money, I wouldn't be in Iran at all,” one respondent wrote.
“Having enough money in this situation means having the best life abroad,” another wrote.
The responses mirror the findings of an earlier Iran International Instagram poll in which 83% of participants said they would leave Iran if given the opportunity.
Around 100,000 people participated in that poll over 24 hours. Thousands of comments cited economic problems, social restrictions, political conditions and uncertainty over the future among the reasons for wanting to emigrate.
Some participants in the latest poll associated remaining in Iran with insecurity, sanctions, inflation, power outages and difficulties meeting basic needs, saying they would rather put their money into a more stable country.
One described owning a home as inseparable from the wider conditions in which a person lives.
“A home needs a blue sky above it, a thriving tree with bright green leaves in its yard, air without lead coming through its windows, a meal in its kitchen that doesn't come with guilt or selling your dignity, and peace of mind because you feel safe,” the respondent wrote.
“Home is where I can look at the stars at night without waking up the next morning choked with sadness and humiliation.”
Gold and currency offer a way out
Others focused on the financial risks of property ownership.
Unlike in previous years, when buying a home was widely viewed as a relatively secure investment for the future, some said they would now prefer to keep their wealth in gold or foreign currency because those assets are more liquid and easier to take out of the country.
“Investing in a bankrupt economy is certainly a mistake because prices are unrealistic, artificial and like a hollow bubble,” one respondent wrote.
Housing has for years served as a means of preserving wealth in Iran's chronically inflationary economy, and property can provide protection against inflation over the longer term.
But international reporting has also documented a move toward assets that can be carried and quickly converted into cash during periods of uncertainty.
The Associated Press described the trend as a turn toward “portable wealth” during the 12-day war, while the World Gold Council recorded a sharp increase in investment demand for gold in Iran in 2025.
The poll comes as Iranians continue to contend with high inflation. Iran's Statistical Center put year-on-year inflation in July at nearly 88%.
‘I wouldn't trade Iran for anywhere’
For respondents who said they would buy a home, attachment to Iran and a sense of national identity emerged as leading reasons.
Some described owning a home as more than a financial investment, linking it to family, personal history and their connection to the country.
“Yes, I wouldn't trade Iran for anywhere in the world,” one wrote.
“Iran is our mother; you don't abandon your mother when times are difficult,” another wrote.
Others said the country's problems would not persuade them to build a life elsewhere.
“Iran is my first and last choice. I believe good days are ahead of us,” one participant wrote.
Some would buy only after political change
A number of respondents made their willingness to buy a home conditional on political change, greater freedoms or improvements in the country's circumstances.
“When Iran is free, 100%,” one wrote. “After Iran is free, yes, but not under these conditions,” another wrote.
Others questioned the premise of the poll itself, saying the prospect of having enough money to purchase a home was increasingly detached from the economic reality facing many people.
They pointed to difficulties paying for food, rent, medical treatment and other daily necessities, describing home ownership as an unattainable aspiration.
“We are renters, and we'll take the dream of buying a home to the grave,” one respondent wrote.
The findings follow another Iran International Instagram poll in which 90% of respondents said they did not want to marry or have children.
“Are Trump’s sanctions targeting the Iranian people or Islamic Republic officials? We are looking for a way to escape this situation, but it seems all the doors of the world have been closed to us,” one citizen wrote.
Iran International asked its audience to share their experiences of barriers to studying abroad after new sanctions led to restrictions affecting international language tests for Iranians.
An analysis of responses on Instagram showed that the cost of studying and moving abroad, compounded by the falling value of Iran’s currency, and the cancellation of international language tests were the most frequently cited concerns.
The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, indefinitely suspended General License G on August 24 as part of the Trump administration’s latest campaign to intensify economic pressure on the Islamic Republic.
The license had since 2014 provided the legal basis for US universities, testing companies and other American entities to offer a range of educational services to Iranian people.
The Duolingo English Test subsequently announced that it would stop providing services from September 1 to people residing in Iran and holders of Iranian identification documents.
Rising costs narrow options
Financial pressures were the most common concern raised in responses to Iran International.
Respondents cited the rising cost of foreign currency, language tests, university applications, tuition, airline tickets and exit bonds as major obstacles to pursuing education overseas.
“With the euro at 2,400,000 rials, visas not being issued to Iranians, war and rising prices, the very high cost of exit bonds, terrible airline ticket prices, internet problems and language tests are all barriers to migration for us in Iran,” one respondent wrote.
Another described being caught between the expense of leaving Iran and the cost of remaining.
“We are imprisoned in Iran. We have neither the money to leave Iran nor the money to live in it,” the respondent wrote.
Some respondents also pointed to rising living expenses after reaching their destination countries, adding another financial hurdle even for those able to secure admission and leave Iran.
Years of preparation disrupted
The suspension or restriction of international language tests was the second major theme to emerge from the messages.
Some respondents said they had switched to TOEFL or the Duolingo English Test after IELTS became unavailable at various periods in Iran, only to see those alternatives restricted as well.
“After several years of studying for TOEFL, getting a high GPA and working to build a good résumé, I was one step away from taking TOEFL, and now the test is no longer being held,” one respondent wrote.
Another said the cancellation of a TOEFL exam was announced on the morning it was due to take place, after years of preparation and with an embassy appointment approaching.
The Duolingo English Test, launched in 2016, has become an alternative to TOEFL and IELTS for some Iranian applicants. The online test can be taken from home and costs less than some other international English proficiency exams.
Several respondents said the latest restrictions showed how sanctions were affecting ordinary Iranians seeking academic opportunities abroad.
“Why should ordinary people be targeted by sanctions? People in Iran are not allowed to take TOEFL and Duolingo tests inside Iran; they are not even allowed to escape this country,” one respondent wrote.
Iranian passport adds to barriers
Some identified their Iranian nationality and passport as another obstacle to academic opportunities abroad.
They described university positions being closed to Iranian applicants or applications being rejected without what they considered serious consideration of their academic records.
“I think the first problem for many people in Iran who want to migrate is the financial cost, followed by the barriers to being accepted as an Iranian,” one respondent wrote.
Another pointed to lengthy security screening of Iranian applicants at embassies, saying delays can prevent students from reaching universities in time to begin their programs.
Internet disruptions cost opportunities
Internet restrictions inside Iran were another recurring concern in the messages, particularly because applications depend on access to university websites, email and international financial services.
One said Iran’s internet was cut off on January 8, a day after an admissions interview with a university in Britain.
The respondent said two weeks without access to email or the university’s website ultimately resulted in the loss of the study opportunity.
“The fact that a teenager sets out on a route where there is a risk of being shot, a mine explosion or an accident, either to help their family or cover school and living expenses, should be a serious warning to society,” labor activist Abdollah Belvasi told ILNA. “A child should be sitting at a school desk, not on a kolbari route.”
Poverty and unstable household incomes are increasingly affecting children in families living along Iran’s borders, Belvasi said.
A shortage of jobs has also left many young people, including university graduates and accomplished athletes, facing a choice between kolbari, with its risk of death, or migration away from their homes and families, according to Belvasi.
Unemployment and a lack of prospects have prompted many young people in Kordestan to consider leaving their cities or even Iran, Belvasi added.
Economic pressures deepen
Iran has faced years of high inflation, a weakening currency and unemployment, eroding purchasing power and making basic living costs increasingly difficult for many households.
Residents of some border communities have turned to kolbari to earn a living. Kolbars typically carry heavy loads on foot across difficult mountainous terrain, and some have been killed in shootings by Iranian security forces or died in accidents and mine explosions.
The growing gap between wages and living costs, reduced working hours and skilled workers moving into informal employment have highlighted the depth of Iran’s employment problems in recent weeks.
Hormozgan Workers’ House said on Friday that around 20,000 workers had lost their jobs because of an economic slowdown and business closures.
Kolbar deaths risk becoming routine
Deaths among kolbars are gradually being treated as routine news, receiving attention and prompting protests for several days before fading from public discussion, Belvasi warned.
“When a kolbar is killed, a family suffers,” he said. “A breadwinner may be lost, children may be left without a father, or a family may have to contend with medical expenses and disability. If we see kolbari only in terms of numbers and statistics, we ignore the human dimension of the tragedy.”
Government promises have failed to address the underlying conditions driving people into the work, Belvasi went on to say.
“The issue of kolbari cannot be solved simply by confronting the kolbar,” Belvasi added. “If the main causes – poverty, unemployment and the lack of stable job opportunities –are not addressed, the issue will emerge again. The root causes must be addressed.”
Discrimination, uneven development and a lack of employment opportunities remain fundamental problems in Iran’s border regions despite their economic, human and natural resources, according to Belvasi.
